Euro area business cycle dating who is fantasia dating 2016
We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods.
The Committee releases its new findings on 7 August 2017.
The idea of a business cycle dating committee (BCDC) is not popular among Indian policy makers. Most of the research in business cycles is done keeping in mind advanced industrial economies.
The scarcity of research for studies of business cycles in India along with data limitations might be some of the reasons why policymakers in India are not too concerned about this issue.
Its main conclusion is that since the last trough in 2013Q1, the euro area has been recovering at a slow but steady pace.
This post-recession recovery is commensurate with that of the US recovery, considering it began later, after the double-dip European recession that followed the global financial crisis.
For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.
It analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc., which may have different dynamics before, during and after the recession.
It identifies turning points which act as a reference point for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators of the economy.
As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for 2001 or 2003, even though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity (though not for two quarters).
Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.
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The new chair is Philippe Weil, President of Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE) in Paris, professor at the department of economics at Sciences Po and CEPR Research Fellow.